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SYD-SFO-JFK award : smart or dumb ?

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Instead of playing roulette with UA (confirmed X wait-listed Y) on SYD-SFO-JFK on Sunday 3/3, i've decided to play it safe and do CX CNS-HKG in J (using Avios) then TK HKG-IST-JFK in I-class (using UAMP).

Pros are i'm confirmed business all the way through, get to sample TK 77W, and don't need to reposition from Cairns down to Sydney. I also have 5 hrs between CX and TK, so misconnect risk should be low.

Cons are i'm using 60000+45000 = 104,500 miles (BA+UA) instead of just 67500 for UA J award, plus much longer routing, and 5:05 layover in HKG.

Did I make the right choice ?

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