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C load PVG EWR mid june

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I'm looking at my upgrade chances for PVG EWR in mid june. Monday 17th seems like good a bet with P9, but Friday 14th is several hundred dollars cheaper.
Monday 17th shows 14 booked (in upgrade list "hack") J9 C9 D9 Z9 P9
while friday 14th shows only 4 booked but J9 C8 D0 Z0 P0

I guess they think they will sell out C cabin on 14th. Or can there be other reasons for only C and J available?

Is it more likely to get the ugrade on the monday flight than friday ?

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