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EWR>SNA Waitlist Question

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Did a search for a thread to ask this in, but didn't find one, so please be easy on me if I posted this in the wrong spot - I'm still semi new to this.
I am flying PIT>EWR>SNA on 4/4 and upgraded to first with 20k points. Got immediate confirmation of upgrade from PIT>EWR, but it's a short flight so I don't really care about that leg, as I'm really only concerned about the long flight. I'm wait-listed on 1661 EWR>SNA and according to the UA rep I just spoke with, second on the list, with the first being an Elite. Seat chart is showing 1A/B open and the rest of the seats occupied. I'm looking for opinions as to my chances of getting the upgrade, since I'd rather save the 20k points, if I'm only going to get the upgrade on the short PIT>EWR flight. UA rep said I have a "75% chance of getting upgraded" and that he recommends keeping the upgrade and not cancelling it to save the points. Thoughts? Advice from the pros? Thank you in advanced and sorry again if this has been covered a billion times.

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