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THIRTY people on the Global First upgrade list???

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I'm waiting at the United Club at Denver, waiting for my delayed 3-class 777 to Chicago. I accidentally booked the flight for Monday morning rather than Sunday. Since the chances of a CPU are close to zero on a heavy business travel day like this (even for a 1K on a high Coach fare), I purchased an upgrade to Z for $129.

Global First is sold out too, but I checked the upgrade list anyway. I'm #2 on the list, and the total upgrade list is 30 people long -- out of 40 in the Business cabin. Is that only upgraders, or people in paid Business too?

It's been a long time since I've had to care about upgrade priority, so I'm a little fuzzy on the rules. Which has higher priority -- fare class or status? For some reason, I thought a Premier with paid C or D would have priority over me. Yet this 1K with a Z fare, who checked in at the 24-hour mark, is near the top of the list.

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