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Economy Plus Strategy

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I am a Silver Elite with UA. I have had to fly TPA-ROR twice in the last two months. Now I have to go again. The planes are absolutely full.

I don’t have a lot of advance notice when I need to go, and when selecting a seat online usually there are only a couple economy seats empty, usually middle seats. I have been paying extra to get economy plus so I don’t have to have a middle seat. My question is, (i) what are the chances I would get a free upgrade to economy plus anyway if I just booked a regular seat; (ii) what are the chances it would be a middle seat; and (iii) does your answer change if there are no available economy seats at the time of booking and you get the notice that you will be assigned a seat at the gate? I have been spending $300-$400 extra for plus and wonder if I am wasting my money. And it’s mostly to avoid a middle seat and not for the extra leg room. The back to back IAH-HNL and HNL-GUM legs are brutal.

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