Best Upgrade Chances LAX or SFO - SYD

Hello FT experts!

I was going to post here, but since that thread is closed I thought I'd start a new one.

I'm flying SFO-SYD on 2/1 and can either take the nonstop (863) or fly via LAX (839). Given the reputation of this flight, I very much hope to use a GPU. I'm curious which option you would recommend:

SFO-SYD, currently showing:
- J9 C4 D0 Z0 P0
- Seatmap shows 10 seats available

SFO-LAX-SYD, currently showing:
- J9 C5 D0 Z0 P0
- Seatmap shows 14 seats available


I'd be booking into V class. I suppose it boils down to this:

For a Friday flight with 18 days to go, 10 seats available, 1K status, V class, and a GPU, are my chances bad enough on SFO-SYD that it's worth adding a leg and flying to LAX? I'm entirely willing to do this, but it does put me at some risk of delays, especially weather related, ex-SFO.

Appreciate any tips, especially from veterans on this route!