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IAD Michigan fan needs some advice on traveling back from ATL to IAD w/low # of miles

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Here is my situation:
- I am a Michigan alum and am trying to get to the Georgia Dome to see my team play on Saturday (4/6)
- I booked an awards ticket (10k miles) from IAD to ATL on UA 3769 (5:00pm - 6:54pm) on Saturday 4/6. Game starts at 8:49pm.
- I need to back in Gaithersburg by 9:30am on 4/7 for church.
- I booked a return flight back on 4/7 using 25k miles that connects thru CLT. Leaves ATL at 5:45am, arrives in CLT at 6:47am and departs CLT at 7:29am and arrives in IAD at 8:49am. Given the need to get back to Gaithersburg at 9:30am, I am clearly going to be late.
- You're probably asking, Why didn't I just book UA6489 from ATL to IAD (5:45am to 7:25am)? It's 50k miles as opposed to my connecting itinerary which is only 25k miles.

Here's my strategy:
- I'm planning on paying $75 to standby for flight UA6489 (direct flight from ATL to IAD) and see if I can take that flight. If I can get onto that flight, everything works. I get down to the game on time, Michigan wins, I go standby and put some $75 dollars into United's coffers, and I get back to MD on time using only 25k miles instead of 50k miles. Everyone is happy.

Here's where I need some help:
1) Is my strategy sound?
2) Can one apply the $75 standby fee for award tickets?
3) It looks like there are at least 20 seats that are unassigned on UA6489 (direct ATL-IAD route) according to the seat map but Kayak is saying there are only 4 seats remaining. How do you check to see how many tickets have been sold on this flight and what the availability is?
4) What would you peg my odds are on getting on the direct flight (UA6489) from ATL to IAD?

Thanks in advance for your advice and insight!

Go Blue!

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