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SFO-FRA winter route options

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Hi. I would appreciate your help on the following puzzle.

In Jan, I will be flying SFO-FRA then onwards. Ordinarily I would avoid connecting in the US and fly direct to FRA but in this case to make my FRA connection I will have to. The options I have are to connect through ORD, EWR or IAD. I shall be buying a V or U fare and be looking to use a GPU (I am 1k).

Questions: 1) Which routes are lightest on folks that could trump me in the upgrade list? 2) are any of these route particularly likely to snarl up due to bad weather in Jan? 3) is there anything else I should be considering?

Many thanks for any help.

Levi

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